Reform UK's Slipping Election Bets Reflect Lingering 2024 Scandal

21 October 2026

The 2024 election-betting scandal haunting Westminster is as much about politics as gambling. What began with individuals getting close to power has seen Reform UK's odds drift from 10/11 to 15/8, despite bookmakers currently favouring the Conservatives.

The odds shift - from 52% down to 34% according to Betway - follows a string of scandals and declining public support. This marks a significant change for a party once considered the favourite.

Political betting: much ado?

When Prime Minister Rishi Sunak called the General Election for 4 July, betting markets reacted immediately. The BBC reported unusual activity: "That afternoon, the odds on a July election surged for three hours on Smarkets." The Gambling Commission has since charged 15 individuals, with more investigations underway.

"In one case, someone placed 27 bets totalling over £10,000 on the election date, likely using confidential information," revealed a source familiar with the investigation.

High stakes in Westminster

Reform UK faces dual scandals as campaign season approaches. Recent polling shows the Conservatives narrowly ahead, but still locked in a tight race.

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Current bookmaker odds put the Conservatives at 7/4, with Labour at 2/1, followed by Reform UK. Analysts suggest the party's reputation has suffered from its association with alleged insider betting among certain MPs and staff.

Further complicating matters, Reform faces inquiries into irregular funding and potential electoral law breaches. Internal divisions surfaced publicly during recent party conferences, with members complaining of factionalism and exclusion. Some attribute leadership challenges to being marginalised within their own party.

These developments create uncertainty around UK election betting as the campaign enters its final stages. The implications for Reform's prospects in future elections remain unclear.