Election markets slash Conservative re-election odds after poll shows Labour surging in key marginals

29 October 2026

LONDON, October 27 2026 - A dramatic eight-point swing in national polling has given Labour a 40% chance of winning the most seats at the next general election as bookmakers and forecasters downgrade the Conservative Party's re-election prospects.

The latest Ipsos UK poll, conducted 15-22 October, shows the opposition Labour Party at 32%, up five points in a month, with the ruling Conservatives trailing at 24% - their worst performance since the 1990s. Reform UK ties with the Conservatives at their lowest poll rating in decades.

The Labour surge is evident nationwide, with a separate Ipsos poll using its random-probability online KnowledgePanel method placing the Conservatives slightly ahead of Reform UK in Westminster voting intention. Election Calculus analysis suggests significant Conservative losses in key London constituencies and marginal seats.

Betting markets react

Traders at Smarkets said "Labour has overtaken both the Conservatives and Reform UK to become the clear favorite to win most seats" since the 2024 general election. "Our markets now imply a 40% probability of an outright Labour victory, 20 points ahead of their nearest challengers."

Ipsos's Keiran Pedley noted that "the Labour Party under Andy Burnham is gaining momentum, consolidating left-leaning voters" but cautioned that UK politics remains volatile. "With the Conservatives knocked out of first place, Labour are currently favored at 7-4, followed by Conservatives at 7-2" said Mark Duffy of Dodds.

Election Calculus's latest model gives the Conservatives just a 1.1% chance of retaining power. Their projection shows a 42.0% probability of a Labour minority government, the highest-rated outcome.

The poll records Labour at 32%, a five-point gain, with the Conservatives at 24%. Reform UK stands at 20%, down three points, while the Liberal Democrats and Greens take 9% and 8% respectively.

Ipsos found the Conservatives losing 16% of their 2024 voters to Reform UK, down from 22% in September, while Labour was losing just 5% of its supporters to the Greens. This suggests some right-leaning voters returning to the Conservatives.

In London battlegrounds, Electoral Calculus projects Labour could gain 59-60 seats. "None of the Conservatives' four London MPs may be re-elected." Key marginal seats including Cities of London and Westminster, Chelsea and Fulham, and Kensington all appear vulnerable to Labour gains as the political landscape shifts.